The Nature of Variance

Well I played exactly 40 SNGs again tonight. I was getting crushed early on and for some reason I just didn't have it in me to keep grinding tonight. I hate playing when I'm completely disinterested or frustrated.

Luckily I won a couple games before it was all said and done and I kept the damage to just -$123. I now stand $703 away from completing Phase One. Its been like one step forward, two steps back for the last week.

I can't seem to catch a break or find any level of consistency anymore. Its been incredibly frustrating and I've decided to take a close look at my stats to see if I can learn anything.

I've played 2,530 SNGs in the past 52 days and I can clearly see a pattern in the games over time. My first 1200 games were nothing short of amazing. However my last 1300 games have been, at best, a struggle just to keep my head above water.

I'm going to show two graphs. The first graph is my first 1,217 games. The second graph is my last 1,313 games.

First 1,217 games (from April 15th to May 19th):


























Last 1,313 games (from May 20th to June 5th):


























The second graph picks up exactly where the first one left off.

The differences are mind-boggling. I go from a very nice 22% ROI to a paltry 1% ROI. I go from $3 average profit per game to $0. I go from just under $3,700 in profit to just over $100. Its like looking at the stats and graphs of two completely different players!

One would think that over the course of roughly the same stretch of games (approx 1250-game stretches each) the stats would be somewhat similar. That couldn't be further from the truth.

I have to ask myself whats going on. I'm playing more games per day in the last 1,300 games but its nothing I can't handle and my quality of decisions are as sharp as they were in the first 1,200 games. It turns out the culprit here is good old variance.

The truth is its not uncommon for SNG players to go long stretches of losing or break even games. This is especially true for turbo games.

I realize that its prolonged, incredibly frustrating runs of poker that get a lot of really good players down. I read a lot of posts on P5s or hear a lot of stories about really good players losing their minds and their bankrolls and thinking about quitting because they just can't shake a prolonged downswing.

Variance is a tricky beast. He fools us by letting us win over long stretches then turns around and shows us what hes really capable of. If we let ourselves get tricked into thinking we'll always win (or always lose) then we don't have the correct mindset to approach poker.

I've always said proper bankroll management is the most important thing in poker and I've proved it with these two graphs. Often times when we're winning consistently we tend to let our guard down about solid BR management. We might think thoughts like "Bah I don't need 50 or 100 buy-ins in my bankroll... I can do this with just 25 buy-ins". Then when the inevitable, prolonged downswing hits you're completely unprepared for the tidal wave of devastation coming your way.

Luckily I have plenty of buyins in my bankroll and despite this prolonged downswing I'm as optimistic about the future as ever. My numbers will turn around, I'll start profiting steadily again, and the graph will start moving steadily upward again. Its only a matter of time and patience.

The most important things you can do for yourself while on a prolonged downswing are:

1) Do NOT Tilt. This is most important. If you start making irrational decisions based on a string of irrational results then you are only helping variance work his black magic. Do whatever you have to do to keep yourself from making mistakes.

2) Stay Calm. I often start to worry when I'm running horribly and think things like "I'll never win again" or "time to find a new job". Thats just how I am. I'm a worrier by nature. But I'm learning that staying rational and focused on the long-run is the key.

3) Continue Making Correct Decisions. Its easy to start to doubt yourself and your decision-making process when losing for a prolonged period. Focus even harder on reading situations and making optimal decisions and have faith that those decisions are correct despite negative results.

4) Practice Sound Fundamental Bankroll Management More Than Ever. During my last 1,300 games I had two harsh downswings (clearly visible on the graph). The first was a $900 downswing which I then immediately recovered. I remember thinking "phew the worst is over... time to get back to winning again". Little did I know the worst was yet to come. Immediately after recovering all $900 I went on a massive $1,400 downswing. I remember wanting to quit so badly. I was losing so much everyday and the two outers and runner-runners would not stop.

During this period I had an average buy-in of $14 per game. So that means my first downswing was -64 buyins and the second downswing was a whopping -100 buyins. However, at no time was I in any danger of going broke. I still had plenty of buyins cushioning me. I knew that if I continued making correct decisions and forcing my opponents into making mistakes things would turn around, and they did. I recovered the $1,400.

Anyway my whole point here is that staying calm and rational during a string of irrational events is the key to this game. Going on tilt and losing your bankroll on a cash table because you're so fed up with losing is NOT the way to go, believe me... I've been there. Thats how this whole project kinda got started anyway ha.

Wow what a long post. Guess I should wrap it up now. Just remember, if you're going through a downswing (like I was) or a frustrating break even period (like I am now) you have to stay positive and follow those tips I gave. Things WILL turn around and you'll reach your goals for sure!

I'm back at it again tomorrow for Day 53, stay cool.