Couple FTs

Played a bunch of MTTs tonight on stars and full tilt. I FTd the $20r 6max on full tilt and finished 4th for about $1,530. Then several hours later I FTd the monster-field $3r on stars and got 6th for about $1,560.





I also ran deep in the 75K guarantee on full tilt (1st = like 26K yum yum) but busted like 20th shortly after my JJ lost to AJo aipf - Kx10Qx obv. I never do anything in this tourney. Oh well.

As I mentioned in my last post (yesterday), I'm basically done with grinding the ridiculous turbo SNGs on stars. So with the extra space on my screens I'm grinding MTTs and 45-mans on full tilt along side my stars MTTs. At the end of the day, poker is my living and I need to make money... and the turbo SNGs on stars are just so swingy and only marginally profitable.

I think its ironic how I've been grinding the hell out of MTTs on stars over the last couple weeks only to be on an ugly downswing and its the 3r of all tourneys that puts a good dent in the downswing ha. Crazy.

Well that's about it I guess. Tomorrow I'm heading down to Trinidad, Colorado to see the boundary line in the rocks from 65 million years ago when the dinosaurs went extinct (via a massive asteroid) and I'm pretty excited. Ya that's right, I'm a total nerd. Anyway, apparently Trinidad is the best place in the world to see the boundary line and its only 100 miles from me. So that will be fun. Gl everyone.

Edit: I'm in love w/ this girl

Update

I haven't posted in several days so I thought I'd give an update.

In addition to Stars, I've been playing a lot on Full Tilt lately. I'm sick of the turbo SNG swings on Stars so I'm running 45-mans and MTTs on Full Tilt along side my Stars MTTs. At this point I don't see myself grinding too many more SNGs on Stars so I'll be finishing up the 25K Project w/ MTTs only most likely.

Well hopefully I'll have some final tables to post here pretty soon.

Gl out there as always.

Day 45

45 Days ago I completed Phase One with an enormous amount of energy and motivation to start off Phase Two. On just the second day of P2 I recorded my first MTT win in the $5 2r1a. Just four nights later I took 2nd in the nightly $10r for a cool $6,500. Then shortly after that I won a 12K main event package on Full Tilt (non project-related). But for some reason after all that I basically lost interest for a while. I had a couple minor personal things come up but my energy for tournaments really trailed off. I ended up taking about 15 days off.

Anyway since all that I've only recorded a 2nd place finish in a $50 6max. Tonight was my last night to turn the 12K roll into 25K but instead it went the opposite way. I dropped about $800 over 12 MTTs and some SNGs. I really couldn't have run much worse. It was standard run-bad BS and I really don't even wanna talk about it.

Ok so what happens now? Well, the roll is at about 11.3K and last time I checked this was called The 25K Project... so obv I need to get to 25K or more!!

The fact that I didn't get the 5K roll up to 25K in 45 days or less isn't really important. It was a goal I set to keep myself motivated but unfortunately the motivation part kinda died out after a few weeks. Oh well.

The important thing is that I finish what I started. And the good news is my motivation is back. I've played 26 MTTs and tons of SNGs over the last two nights. I don't think an unmotivated person does that.

Recent Downswing

Eight days ago the roll was peaked at about 14K. Tonight its at about 11.3K. So I'm on a 2.7K downswing which is just under a 20% bankroll loss in just eight days. Yuck. And believe me I feel it too. I've been playing my ass off and getting completely killed. But the good news is I've been through this before and I know it won't last. Things always eventually turn around if you're making quality decisions and forcing your opponents into mistakes.

Current Schedule

For the last week or so I've been playing pretty much the same schedule. I've been falling asleep at like 8am and waking up at about 5pm ha. Gross sleep cycle I know. Anyway this is the nightly schedule I've been running and will prbly continue to run:

5:00 pm $109
5:15 pm $11 1r1a
6:00 pm $27.50
6:00 pm $3r
6:15 pm $55 6max
7:00 pm $162
7:00 pm $20r
7:30 pm $55
8:00 pm $10r
8:15 pm $55 6max
---------------------
Total ~$663 - $66 Average Buyin

I really like this schedule cuz its got a good mix of large fields, medium fields, and small fields. This helps to even out variance in the long run. Also It allows me to have a solid ten MTTs going in just a 3hr 15min block of time.

Well I guess thats about it. All I can do is continue playing great and eventually I'll hit some FTs and get this roll moving in the right direction.

Yikes

I played my heart out tonight. I ran 14 MTTs. They were:

$109, $11 1r1a, $3r, $27.50, $55 6max, $109 turbo, $162, $20r, $55, $10r, $55 6max, $27.50 turbo, $33, $77 6max turbo

It went as disastrously as possible. I mincashed the $10r and that was all she wrote. I was ahead when the money went in for virtually all of my bust hands. I couldn't hold when ahead and I couldn't suck out when behind. We've all been there. It feels like total shit. Welcome back my old friend Mr. Variance.

I ran 180s again and as usual it was complete hell. I'm now down a staggering $1,700 in the $12/180 mans over 385 games. I don't even know what to say about these things anymore. I wish I had never started playing them and just stuck to 18 and 45 mans.

I was curious about something. I decided to look at my SNG stats since I started this project for all my 18 man and 45 mans only. Then I decided to look at only my 180 man stats. The differences are unbelievable.

So in this project I've played 18 man, 45 man, and 180 man SNGs. This first graph is all my statistics in the 18 man and 45 man games combined:























This is a good looking graph. It shows the minor downswings and major downswings you'd expect from playing exclusively turbos but overall it shows the upward trend of a solid 3,000-game sample.

This next graph shows ONLY my 180 mans:























This is unreal to me. This is the kind of graph you expect to find from a seasoned fish or fresh-faced amateur. Yet its not. Its my disgusting graph.

I mean, from looking at my first graph of over 3,000 games its clear that I know how to beat these turbo multi-table SNGs. So whats going so horribly wrong in the 180 mans that I've never even been on the positive side of the graph?

I think there are multiple answers to this question. One problem alone wouldn't be keeping me down so long.

First off, there is a great deal of variance built into these turbo 180 mans. Its literally push/fold after 30 minutes and usually theres still about half the field left at this time. This fact alone makes these things very difficult and crapshooty.

Secondly, there are a lot of regs in these things. I see so many everyday players in the 180 mans its almost unreal. And of course these players are making very few mistakes, therefore decreasing your chances even further of having good results.

Thirdly, even the "average joes" who play these things almost all understand basic push/fold strategy by now. With all the free or inexpensive poker tools about proper turbo SNG strategy available to the online community, the pool of players making egregious mistakes is definitely getting smaller. Again, this further decreases your chances of having good results.

Lastly, sample size. I've only played 385 of these things. While this may sound like a lot it really isn't. Also, I've only final tabled 4.6% of all 385 I've played (18 final tables). And at those final tables I've ran really really awful. So awful, in fact, I have yet to have a single first place finish! However, my NEXT 18 final tables could very easily be a different story and I might post 5 or 6 first place finishes... this is how variance works and why having a large enough sample is very important.

In conclusion, there is no "one single factor" to why my numbers in the 180 mans are so horrible at this moment. Its a deadly combination of a poor structure, reasonably skilled opponents, lack of sample size, and variance.

I feel like after I have at least 700 games under my belt things will be different.

Ok so today was Day 98 and tomorrow is my last day to finish the project. Well not really ha. I mean, I feel like I need to clear something up about this project. Even if I don't reach 25K after tomorrow's session I'm NOT stopping this project. That was never part of the plan.

After I completed Phase One I set a lofty goal to get from 5K to 25K in 45 days. Tomorrow is the 45th day. But even if that doesn't happen I'm not going to stop. I'm going to play on until I climb over the 25K mark.

But who knows I could get it done tomorrow. The roll is at 12K right now and I should be in three tourneys tomorrow night where first place is 13K or more. Thats the $109/40K guarantee, the $162 Nightly Hundred Grand, and the $55 Nightly Seventy Grand. And then theres also the $10r but 1st place in that is usually about 12K. But no matter what, the possiblilty exists. It would be pretty sick if I did get it done on the 45th day ha.

Sooooooooooooo thats about it folks. glgl to all good ppl.

A Little Better

Tonight's session was far better than my last two sessions. This isn't to say it was great tho. It just wasn't a horrible losing session ha.

This was the first session since I started Phase Two that I haven't ran any 45-mans. Since I'm on my laptop right now its difficult to run more than nine tables. So basically I just ran MTTs and two or three 180 mans at the most.

In the 180 mans I had a 6th and two mincashes. While that may not sound like much, for me its a monster run in these things. My last FT was over 50 games ago. Ridiculous.

Anyway at least I didn't run miserably in the 180s tonight so that was def nice.

I cashed the $55 6max and lost w/AJ to Q9dd on a x9J flop to running diamonds. Then I cashed the Nightly Hundred Grand and got my 25K stack aipf w/KK against AKdd and 1010. Board ran out xxAxx obv and gg me.

The way the KK hand played out was unbelievable to me and goes back to exactly what I was saying yesterday in my second post on variance. These players are beyond horrible.

So this is how it happened:

Blinds 800/1600. I have about 23K to start the hand. I'm in the SB w/KK. UTG (whos been aggro) opens about 2.5x AKdd. Player in MP 3bets w/1010 (prbly cuz UTG player has been aggro). So its a gorgeous spot for me with KK. I obv instaship.

So at this point UTG is looking at a 3bet and a significant 4bet shove. Any decent player stops and re-analyzes whether or not AKdd is good anymore. He didn't even hesitate before hitting the all in button. And as if that wasn't bad enough, the guy with 1010 is now facing a 5bet shove but also instantly puts his chips in the pot. Wp fellas, wp. I appreciate you completely ignoring the action and trying to give your money away. Just too bad I couldn't hold or I'm over 75K with about five tables left.

So this is why tourneys are still so so so profitable imo. Players are in such a hurry these days to get their money in with a good hand that they are ignoring the action. In fact, if you ask me, tournaments are more profitable these days than before all the good information on tourney strategy flooded and saturated the poker market a few years ago.

The key difference between now and "back in the day" is that back then players were weak and check-calling all the time trying to hit flops. So all you had to do was play in position and be aggressive. If you got played back at you folded.

Nowadays that mass of weak players are now betting and 3betting w/marginal hands cuz they just assume you're weak when being aggressive.

So instead of the bad players being mostly passive, now they are mostly aggressive. I find that just sitting back and letting these over-aggressive monkeys bluff off their chips is a good strategy.

Anyway I've only got four days left to get this project done according to my timeline. It might happen and it might not. Who knows. I mean, I'm playing in at least three MTTs every night where first place in any one of them would put me over the 25K mark so its not impossible.

I've been solidly motivated the last week or so to finish this project after about three weeks of dragging my feet on it and barely playing tourneys. I think this new-found motivation is (at least partly) due to the fact I've been formulating the details for my next challenge in my head over the last couple weeks. I think people are gonna like it.

I'm not gonna talk about the details until I'm done with the stars project but I will say its gonna be bigger and better and will prbly generate a good deal of buzz.

K well thats about it. Gl out there guys and girls.

The Nature of Variance II

I'm writing this at the tail end of my session tonight. All I have left open is the 10r. I just got donked out of virtually everything.

I'm feeling pretty inspired right now for some reason. I can't believe how many mistakes players still make these days in poker. With all the training sites, books, forums, and other free information out there about poker I sometimes worry that the average player will become good enough that making money in poker would become very difficult.

Then I have a session like tonight where its as if I'm in the twilight zone. Its one fish after another trying hard to give their money away. I made some really quality reads and got my money in time and time again far ahead and watched as virtually each time I lost to some ridiculous card. This is when I realize my fears are irrational and the ocean of poker is constantly ripe with fishes. Phew.

However, this was my second session since the $50 6max 2nd place finish and I'm cashless in all MTTs and running horribly in the 45 and 180 mans. I've watched nearly 10% of my bankroll slip away in just two completely disastrous sessions.

I think this is where most otherwise very intelligent and talented players fail in poker. Its easy to plan out a bankroll and a schedule and go at it full force. But when variance kicks in it challenges you in ways you really are almost never prepared for.

You continually get the money in good and continually lose and you tell yourself, "ok this will end soon, I'm cool, just gotta keep playing amazing", but to your horror the unrealness continues. Eventually it can become overwhelming for some people and suddenly their hopes of making a living in poker seem like a distant dream. Irrational thoughts towards the game creep into their minds and they may start to assume they are just doomed to lose. At this point it can be very easy for their poker train to become completely derailed.

Lets make something very clear: This is a tough game. Its a very tough game. You can lose over long periods of time where you are playing nearly perfect while someone else can be winning over a long period of time playing very poorly. This is the phenomenon known as variance and it can be very difficult to understand. So difficult, in fact, that most people resort to simple but completely irrational explanations.

We've all heard players at the table remark something like, "thats Jokerstars for ya!", or, "only on full tilt", after an unlikely event occurs. Its more comfortable for these people to rationalize unlikely things in this way rather than try to imagine how variance works. This is why these are losing players. They play with emotion rather than intelligence. They play with "feel" rather than proven probabilities. Most of the money that profitable players make in poker comes from players with these mindsets.

So whats my point here? Well, after I've had a couple consecutive horrendous sessions I may be experiencing a plethora of negative emotions. I may become completely disgusted with the game or I may start to feel some irrational thoughts of my own creeping up.

I'm not a mentally tough person. I may be stronger some days than others but when I'm running badly in poker it takes a toll on me. I know there are a lot of other people who are the same way.

There is one thing all the best poker players have in common: mental toughness. Some might also call it perseverance. However you want to label it, its a quality that allows them to be completely unaffected by negative results (variance). They bounce back again and again and play their best game 100% of the time.

This is an ability most people don't naturally posess. I'm a crybaby by nature and poker conflicts with that. I've been trying very hard over the last four years to learn to handle my emotions and keep them in check.

One thing I've realized over the last few years is that I'm not special. No one is. Nothing that is happening to any player at any time is special in any way.

Poker and the short-term randomness of the cards are a very chaotic thing. The individual results any one player experiences over a certain period of time are only one microscopic and insignificant slice of all that chaos. Its silly to think that somehow "the poker gods" are singling you out and picking on you.

The bottom line is this: Stay strong. Realize that nothing you're experiencing is "special" in any way. This game is unbelievably random and chaotic in the short run and trying to look for patterns is completely useless. The ONLY edges we have amidst all the chaos are these:

1) Our ability to NOT make mistakes
2) Our ability to force our opponents into making mistakes
3) Getting the money in ahead as often as possible

So if these three things aren't your top three priorities chances are you're not going to succeed.

Writing posts like these help me to cope with my own variance. Getting all these thoughts out of my head is very helpful. I'm not the kind who can just sit back and take it up the ass and be like "meh, no biggie". I'm the type who has to sit down and figure out why things are happening. I break everything down piece by piece until I have my answers. And my answer this time is the exact same as it always is when I'm in this situation: just keep doing exactly what I'm doing and I'll eventually see the results I want.

Good Session

Well today was a much better session. I still couldn't win a 180 man (ajkfhadsjkhfjkdlgh) but I did pull off two 45 man wins (and a 2nd) and I got 2nd place in the $55 6max for 2.3K.




I was CL from about 20 players all the way down to HU. I was completely dominating. I took several bad beats while 3 handed and HU and had to settle for 2nd despite being a 2-1 CL going into HU play. My opponent was a complete fish and hit every miracle he needed. It was totally unreal. Oh well.

I feel like I can safely say I played my absolute best game in this tourney and did not make one mistake down the stretch.

Stars has been running this "Extended Registration" thing lately and I love it. They keep the tourney registration open for the entire first hour and its making a huge difference in the prize pools.

For example, the $55 6max tourney I got 2nd in tonight used to only get between 110 and 140 players every single night. But with the Extended Registration it picked up 311 entrants swelling the prize pool to more than double what it used to get.

If Stars for some crazy reason decides to stop this Extended Registration I'm gonna be super pissed.

Well thats really about it. I def ran better tonight than I have been and I feel like I'm finally excited again to finish this project.

glgl

Edit: I updated the Bankroll Timeline Graph at the top.

Grrrrrrr

Well I've been putting in some tourney sessions here and there on the 25K Project and its been rough. The rare few times I manage to amass a stack deep in a tournament I can't avoid a ridic two outer or something else retarded. Its been frustrating. The 25K Project roll has slipped below 12K.

And to top it all off I STILL haven't won a 180 man SNG yet. I've been grinding these for over a month now and my results just get more and more disgusting as time passes... isn't it supposed to be the opposite?

























I've been on a downswing in the 45 mans as well:

























The 45 man graph overall tells me these turbo SNGs are profitable and that if I stick with the 180 mans I'll make money in them. But what kind of money? I mean, are these things worth it?

I've always grinded 45 mans on Full Tilt in addition to my regular MTT grind. This helps maintain a healthy bankroll and keeps me sharp in endgame situations. But the 45 mans on Full Tilt are non-turbos and the variance is drastically reduced. The turbo 45 and 180 mans on Stars have wild swings of variance built into their structures. So not only is your ROI less but your profit is less steady.

Let me illustrate what I'm talking about. This first graph is every single SNG I've played on Stars since I started the 25K Project:
























They are comprised of 180 mans, 45 mans, and 18 mans and are virtually all turbos. This next graph is all the $26/45 man/NON-turbos I've played on Full Tilt:
























You can clearly see how much more steady and profitable the non-turbos are.

I mean, sure, the buyin is double on Full Tilt with the non-turbos but look at the vast differences. I played less than one-third the games to earn more than double the profit! That's huge! Less volume, less variance, more profit. And all because of the differences in structures.

With the non-turbos you have plenty more time and can be more patient and wait out the bad players and pick good spots. With the turbos on Stars it feels like a shovefest 15 minutes in. Its a lot harder to pick a good spot in the turbos. And ultimately that's what poker comes down to: picking spots. Bad players lose money over time because they pick mostly bad spots while good players make money over time because they pick mostly good spots.

So whats my whole point here? Well I guess I'm saying I'm not sure about the turbo SNGs on Stars. Right now they are feeling like a lot more work then they're worth.

So, why am I even messing with SNGs? I've always been the kind who likes to be grinding SNGs simultaneously with MTTs. The SNGs are always there to pick up my spirits and my bankroll when I'm down on my MTT luck. But the swings of these turbo SNGs are starting to drive me insane.

Also it really disgusts me that I've played over three-hundred 180 mans and have yet to win a single one. I literally don't think I've ever played ANY tournament over three-hundred times and NOT won it at least once.

I would love to switch to non-turbo 45 and 180 mans on Stars but unfortunately they virtually never run. All the action is in turbos on Stars for some reason. So its either turbos or nothing.

I can't see myself NOT grinding SNGs while I play a schedule of MTTs so with that thought in mind I'm gonna continue on with the turbo 45 and 180 mans for awhile longer. I'll make a more definitive decision about them after I get in a larger 180 man sample.

So what else is going on? Not much. Like I mentioned in my recent post titled "Motivation" I've been struggling to find that fire inside me about poker and about this project. Maybe theres something wrong with me that I have these intense phases of motivation and accomplish some amazing things then abruptly it turns to a phase of "bluh" and "meh" towards everything.

I was diagnosed as bipolar a few years back and have been on and off meds for it but I'm not sure what role that plays in my motivational level towards poker.

I know I have the potential to be a pretty sick poker player and have amazing results but there is vast inconsistency in my moods and state-of-mind which keep me from reaching that potential.

I think its something I'm slowly conquering though. For the last five months I've been on a new med that I think is really helping to clear out my head and make me a more stable person. But these things take time and I'm not sure when I'll be ready to reach my full potential level.

Guess I better wrap this post up... its so easy for me to get rambly.

glgl

Motivation

I played a long 25K session Monday and it went awful. Played another long session Tuesday and it was just as bad. If I wasn't running into some random idiot's good fortune I was leveling myself against Supernovas and looking like a fool while losing my chips.

Down about $1200 over both days.

When I woke up yesterday morning (Weds morning) I just wasn't feeling motivated. Its strange because three weeks ago two consecutive losing sessions wouldn't have bothered me. I would have got right back in there. But for some reason the motivation, fire, and intensity I had seem to have cooled to just a glowing ember. I know this has been evident in my lack of blogging and lack of playing tourneys.

So instead of loading up a plethora of tourneys yesterday morning I loaded up a plethora of cash tables. I 24-tabled 50nl for about four hours and played 6,100 hands. I was +7 buyins and picked up a cool 1,200 VPPs. This puts me one step closer to Supernova.

For the record, I'm now break-even at 50nl but still -9 buyins at 100nl. I'm prbly just gonna stay at 50nl though and recoup that money there. Eventually I'll even be making money.

However, I'm regretting having gotten myself addicted to these cash games.

Are they a sick way of earning points and easily making Supernova? Yes.

Do I enjoy 24-tabling and executing split-second decisions? Absolutely.

Are they profitable? Marginally.

Have they caused me to lose my tournament motivation? Most likely.

The conclusion I have to draw is that the cash games are a distraction from where my focus should be: tournaments and the 25K Project.

This being said, I'm going to force myself to get in there every day and do tournaments like I was. I'll still run cash game sessions on the side cuz I'll need the points for supernova but I can't let them be my main focus.

Self-discipline is fundamental to being a successful poker player. Its something I'm nowhere near perfect at. But its something I'm working on.

Hopefully if you've read this perhaps you can take a look at some of the things you've been doing and decide if you have any distractions of your own.

First Session Back

My 25K session yesterday was pretty awful. I played a lot of MTTs. I ran deep in the 22c, 55 (80k guar), 55 (40k guar), 33 2r1a, and 3r. I either lost flips or took ridiculous beats to bust from all those. Standard I guess.

I've mentioned this before but I feel its worth mentioning again. Throughout my sessions I'm either an observer or active participant in hands where players are making atrocious mistakes. In other words, there are still tons of fish in the sea ha. There is, without question, lots of money to be made in midstakes tourneys.

Anyway I also ran like total shit in the 180 mans, surprise surprise. I've played 259 of them since the start of this project and have yet to win one. I've got two 2nds and several 6th thru 9th finishes but thats it. I can't believe how I'm running in these things. The variance is disgusting.

I had a 1st, 2nd, and a few other cashes in 45 mans yesterday so that helped a little.

Also yesterday I ran a contest in OT in P5s. I was giving away two $5 prizes to the best two pics of girls in baseball hats. I ended up shipping $50 to six different winners ha but it was def fun. Heres the link to this contest and here are my fav pics from it:


These were my top two pics:


























I picked these as the top two cuz I was looking for pretty faces, huge smiles, and hair pouring out of the cap.












Other favs:




























































Celebrities:




















Alyssa Milano































Shannon Elizabeth


Lots of cowboy hat posts. This was my fav:



























I'm gonna be running some contests similar to this in OT on P5s in the near future so stay tuned and make some free cash!

Well its about time for my session today. Despite yesterday's ugly session I feel strong today so hopefully I can run well.

glgl

Back At It

K so after taking two weeks off from the 25K Project I'm ready to hit it full force again starting tomorrow.

For the last two weeks I've been busy mass multi-tabling cash games and earning VPPs so I can make sure I earn Supernova status this year. I played 74,000 hands and picked up about 16,000 VPPs. Sadly I'm down 18 buyins but w/e. I'm down 9 buyins @ 100nl and down 9 buyins @ 50nl. Having played almost 75,000 hands that's really not a horrible losing rate but I must have a leak somewhere while 24-tabling cuz I feel like I should be winning after 75K hands.

I think I'm making my decisions too quickly. I know I've been running really awful too. My aces keep getting run down by anything and everything and I'm running KK into AA like its my job. But I'm not sure how much of it is running bad or being overwhelmed by all the action. I need to figure it out.

Either way I'll get it all back and then some. I'm not the type who quits. And whats most important is that I figured out a sick way to earn VPPs and FPPs on Stars w/o having to risk much. In just two weeks I picked up 1/6th the required annual VPPs to make Supernova by playing small stakes cash only. Did I mention the 40,000 FPPs I picked up too? Ha. I think that's pretty gross. God bless Table Ninja imo.

K so the roll on stars is @ 14K and I need to get to 25K. I've only got 17 days to get this done. Maybe I can do it and maybe I can't. Depends on how I run. But don't worry even if I don't get it done in the time line I set out I will for sure get it done.

My mind is so constantly active I'm already thinking about what I'm gonna do after the 25K Project. I'm contemplating doing a prop bet on Full Tilt in a similar bankroll building project. This might be a little premature but I'm thinking of something along the lines of trying to turn $50 bucks into 50K in 150 days. I'll need to see what kind of action I can get on this though. I'd love to hear some feedback on this.

glgl