So I've been putting in an obscene amount of volume. I've played 407 MTTs so far in August.
Volume = Good.
Downswing = Bad.
Unfortunately I've been losing a ridiculous frequency of key situations late in tourneys resulting in finishing at the final two tables or making the FT and busting 9th, 7th, 4th, or making a 3rd if I'm lucky.
My spots are being picked well, the money is consistently going in ahead (65+%) but my opponent finds whatever they need to find and the chips move away from me when it counts. The updated graph at the top is a great visual of how August has been going so far.
I have made several FTs and won several of the smaller tourneys on my schedule (not substantial payouts) but overall its clearly been rough.
Some things I'm thinking:
1) Players are obviously better, have a better understanding of situations. Thus, it is not as easy as it used to be to accumulate chips late-tourney without showdowns. This increases variance.
2) About 40% of my schedule are Turbos. By nature, variance is higher in turbos, and, in a world where a decent % of the field has a pretty solid understanding of correct push/fold strategy, that variance will unfortunately be enhanced further.
3) I absolutely hate Bovada's anonymous player policy. Nearly every situation is cold. Additionally, their Hand History feature is so "cryptic" I don't have time to go back through and see how a person has been playing when faced with a marginal situation.
4) Given all of the above, I feel strongly it's time to reevaluate what a proper bankroll is and what a "typical" downswing looks like. This isn't 2008 anymore and I'm not playing on a site where I can track (using the simple Note feature) the tendencies of players.
I am still 100% certain I'm running well below expectation at final tables - time/volume will bring this back on track. The thing is, I'm not too sure what "back on track" looks like under these circumstances in 2015. Undoubtedly the game is still highly profitable, but ROI can never be as high as it once was. I just don't know what hit that ROI takes as a result of the above factors.
Anyway, so here's another FT from last night where I finished 3rd in the $33 turbo. As per usual, I was CL (slightly, obscene blinds) and called the SB's shove w A5o in the BB against his Q8o. Board: xxxxQ. A hold in that 60/40 spot puts me heads up with a 4:1 chip lead over a player with obvious tendencies.
Just gotta keep grinding until variance corrects itself.
