Black Friday

The day has finally come. Since 2006 when the UIGEA was passed and my tiny poker world flashed before my eyes I always knew this day would come.

It appears to be over folks. If you live in the US Pokerstars is gone and Full Tilt will shut its doors in the next 36 hours or so. They will likely never return in the capacity we knew them, or ever.

One thing I need to stress is for no one to blame the US Dept. of Justice. They did their job and enforced the laws as they are on the books. Clearly the masses are not against playing poker online. Please reserve your anger for those forces within our society who would seek the passage of legislation effectively forcing their way of life on everyone.

Social conservatives (religious and "family-oriented" groups) in this country focused their energy in 2006 to see to it the UIGEA was passed. And the UIGEA is why the events of this day took place. We should seek to ensure there is ALWAYS a voice on the other end to defend against the strong voices of those who would tell us how we can or should live our lives.

What does the future hold? I don't know. It is more than likely sensible regulation of online poker will be passed and US-based sites will be up and running within the next year or two. But it will never be the same. We will always think back fondly on "the good 'ol days".

As for me I am not sure. While this day is a shock to me it isn't exactly unexpected. Sadly I don't have the savings I would like to have and it's unclear at this point when I'll be able to get my online funds returned. This is a pretty dark day for me as I've basically devoted the last six or so years of my life to studying and honing my skills in this game.

As of right now I'm unemployed and basically looking for work. I may return to college now and take it more seriously than before. Poker is certainly not out of my life but I doubt it will ever occupy my day-to-day functioning as it has for so long now.

So for now I say goodbye my friends. For those who have been reading this blog diligently through all my moaning and complaining I tip my hat to you and thank you. I may come back and post updates on what's going on with me or with online poker. I do enjoy writing.

Good luck out there and please remember what I said about always making your voice heard even if you think it won't matter or there is no point. Because if you don't speak up and say how you feel then someone else will... and you may not like what they have to say.

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Edit: Please let your voice be heard and join The Poker Player's Alliance here. They have ways for you to spend just 60 seconds and send emails to The White House, Congressmen/Senators, and State Representatives. We only win this fight when we the people make our voices loud enough so MAKE YOUR VOICE HEARD.

Edit: Today, Monday, April 18th, The PPA released new emails to be sent to the Attorney General, President Obama, and members of Congress and the Senate. These new letters call for the immediate return of player funds and continue to demand that sensible poker legislation be passed. Please take a few moments and read the letters and send them off.

A Momentumless Year

The title sums it up. What a lackluster year it's been. Everyday on the grind is a frustrating one. In years past I would never go so long between results. Sure, there were bad times. But nothing to match the longevity of this year. And really it extends into the last half of last year as well. I basically blame it on a sharp increase in opponent skill and a turn for the worse in the variance chapter.

Yesterday I got 2nd in the $15 SS on UB that I won like a month ago. It was worth like $580. Thank God too or else I would have needed to drop down. Then today I get 11th in a $22 360cap on Stars and 9th in the 13:00 $22 (15K) for a pathetic $250. First was worth just under 4K. These are the scores I'm supposed to be hitting but are completely alluding me.

I can just never get momentum. Every time it seems like a heater is finally coming things cool off just as quickly as they warmed up. I've never had so few top-three cashes in this number of games. I feel like perhaps it's time I started to change my expectations toward poker. Perhaps in this new ultra-aggro world, where more people than ever understand correct push/fold strategy, people just aren't making enough mistakes for me to crush midstakes tourneys like I used to.

I'll probably let this year finish out before I start to truly accept that possible new reality. I seriously hope I don't have to do that.

April (3rd) Fools

It's a dumb name for a post but I couldn't come up with anything else ha.

I got 5th today in the Sunday $55 (25k Guarantee) on UB for about 1.5k. First was worth 6.3k. It was a tough FT battle and as usual I got it in pretty far ahead and as the story of the year goes I couldn't hold.

It folded to the SB (who mentioned he is a reader of this blog earlier in the FT) who shoved into my BB with about 15bb (I can't remember but I think we both had roughly 15bb to start the hand) and I snapped w/ A10o. He showed 89o (making me a 2:1 favorite) and I watched the board fall Q788x. It was quite reminiscent of my 5th place finish in the $10 1r1a on FT a couple weeks ago when my AQo lost to A9o (xxxx9).

I've been stuck in this rut for what feels like eternity now. Even though the game has gotten tougher I'm still getting my money in ahead. At the end of the day that's all I can do.

A Little Something At Least

I guess I got real lucky and shipped a $15 tourney on UB for 1k. Wins like these seem to be all I can muster up these days.

Yesterday I finished 5th in the morning $10 1r1a on Full Tilt for about $800. First was 3k. I played my heart out. I got the money in consistently ahead but couldn't hold, including a big AQ < A9o (xxxx9) to put the dagger in me.

I used to win tourneys like that on the reg. I used to ship midstakes tourneys left and right and these days it's not that simple. I feel like it's a combination of me running under expectation + people making less mistakes late.

Anyway I'm just marching on. I've been playing during the day for the last few weeks and so far I pretty much love it. It's 7pm here and I'm done for the day and usually I'm done a lot sooner.

Good things happening soon... they have to.

Two Wins Today/Announcing Sunday Packages

Won two tourneys today. They were both variance control tourneys I talk about so much.

Again, these tourneys not only help to keep the bankroll stabilized but they keep confidence high, something very important to being successful in poker.

Starting today I'm going to be selling pieces of packages I put together for Sunday MTTs.

The package for this Sunday (March 13th) is as follows:

Currently this package is sold out. However, when I have pieces of a package for sale (prbly most Sundays) I will have a page here on my blog with a listing similar to the one above. Typically, I think I'll be selling 50% of my action. I'll post my contact information when I have a package for sale.

Update

Had some real-life stuff going on there for a few days and ended up not playing for like the last five days of Feb. It's working out for the best cuz now I'm on a sleep cycle where I'm awake during the day.

I'm getting sick of being awake all night and sleeping all day. I don't feel like I'm part of the world ha. So anyway I'm gonna try out this daytime schedule and see how I like it. I might even join a gym and start getting some exercise. Doubt anything bad can come from that.

New Schedule

I withdrew a little bit and took a day off following the 3r win.

Over the last few days I struggled a bit to find a schedule I'm comfortable with. I think I've finally come up with something I'm very happy with (you'll find it on the Schedule Page if you're interested).

I'm excited to keep going. I love playing on all three sites. There are certain things I love about each site that makes the variety perfect.

As a tip, if you're trying to make a go of it in poker and are starting with a small roll and trying to build it up I highly recommend playing exclusively on UB. The fields are perfect in size and the players are just unbelievably awful. When you want to make more money you def will need to expand out to Stars or FT but starting on UB is prbly your best option imo.

GL out there.

I LOVE Making These Posts

The night started off at 6pm for me as usual. The first two tourneys I load are the $11 KO non-guarantee on Full Tilt and the $3r 40K Guaranteed on Stars. About four hours later the $11 KO ended with a good result.

Finally, ten hours later at 4am, the $3r on Stars ended.

Three-handed I had 58% of the chips in play. My two opponents were good players who knew what they were doing. We made an ICM chop whereby I ended up losing only 7.3% from first-place money. It was definitely worth it to me to virtually lock up first place money w/o having to beat the other two players (who collectively controlled 42% of the chips and weren't going to make many mistakes). I walked away w/ $5,800 from a $9 investment.

All I can say right now is IT'S ABOUT GOD-DAMN TIME!!!!

Sorry but I needed to get that out of my system ha. If you've been reading my blog for the last couple months you know I've been playing my ass off since the start of the year to rebuild my roll. It was forty-six days of pure frustration until tonight.

Okay so my roll is just shy of 10K right now so obv I'll be moving up in stakes as I've been talking about so much. I may withdraw some money so I'm not sure what my schedule will be yet but w/e it is it's gonna be good.

2011 Here I Come!

Update

Haven't posted in a week. I took a couple days off. I'm feeling a little burned out. Still on pace for 500 MTTs this month. I really can't wait for this nonsense to turn around.

4th in DD A

On the last day of January I got 4th in the FT 3r for $800ish (First was 2.6K, sigh). My 4th in the DD A tonight was almost identical to that. It paid like $750 for 4th (First was 2.3K, sigh again) and I busted in 4th losing another damn coin flip.

I lost a CL pot when I opened my 1010 utg and the CL in the SB shoved. I couldn't get my money in fast enough as he showed AQhh. The flop came down AAQ as if to laugh in my face and say "you ain't neva gonna win no tourney boy!"

Anyway, the $750 def helps. It puts my roll just a touch under 4K. I'm not going to make any dramatic changes to my current sched. I might add in the $22 6max on UB @ 23:00. I could prbly move up a little but I'm plenty comfortable where I'm at right now. I have 275 buyins in my roll and I'm thinking this year I'm gonna change up the old 200 buyin rule and try to aim for 250+.

I mean, there's just no question that the game has gotten tougher and it will continue to. The edges are getting smaller and it seems like the average player understands correct push/fold strategy late in tourneys (which creates higher variance). With that in mind, I feel like aiming for 250+ buyins makes a lot of sense.

Well I'm proud to say that after the first thirty-eight days of this year I'm finally enjoying my first day in the black ha. I really didn't expect that after about 600 MTTs my profit would only be $109 bucks but that's the name of game. Here's hoping my next 600 games are a lot different...

Last Couple Nights...

I've come real close to hitting the kind of score I'm playing for.

Friday night saw me finish 8th in the $27.50 (10K) on UB for just $344. First place was worth 2.8K
Tonight saw me finish 17th in the $5 2r1a on Stars for just $82. First was worth 2.5K
Tonight saw me finish 13th in the $10 1r1a on Stars for just $110. First was worth 2.1K

It's been a week full of plenty of potential. Even though I know there will be plenty more potential in the future I can't help but feel like I didn't take advantage of this week. I mean, I feel like I made every play by-the-book. I just couldn't hold my 60/40s when I was ahead, couldn't hit my 60/40s when I was behind, and couldn't win a key flip.

It's crazy cause sometimes you'll have a period of time (anywhere from like a week to four weeks) where there is all kinds of potential and deep runs are plentiful. When you run good during those periods (which we call heaters) it feels like you're shipping top-three scores one after another. But then sometimes you have a period like I'm in right now where I've been playing catch-up for 550 tourneys.

But it's okay. It's okay because I know my heater is out there. There will be plenty of run-good for me. All I have to do is keep my roll stabilized and the growth will come. 

Of noteworthy interest, within the last twenty-six days I've played twenty-four of them. Also, since the year began thirty-six days ago, I've played 554 MTTs. I can't think of a time within the last few years where I've played that many MTTs in that period of time or taken so few days off. What this tells me is that I'm focused, more serious about the game, and ready to have my best year.

Grrrrr Flips

It's been said many times that winning coin flips is vital to winning tourneys. I couldn't agree more.

I generally try to avoid flips if possible and look for spots where I can slowly accumulate chips w/o a showdown. But sometimes you just gotta flip.

On Jan 31st I lost a big flip five-handed that caused me to bust in 4th in the 3r on FT, rather than being CL three-handed. Tonight I busted in 11th while six-handed in the $10 2r1a on Stars... losing a flip. I shoved my 13bb with QJo from the cutoff and the button flatted w/ 77. Board bricked out.

Okay, whatever. Losing these flips is costing me the 2Kish score that I need to bump my roll up to the next level. Just gotta keep the grind on. I love my schedule and eventually I'll win an important flip and hit the score I need.

Speaking of schedules, I modified my schedule so I'll update it on the Schedule Page for those who are curious. At some point in the future I'm gonna make a post where I breakdown all the components of building and executing a proper schedule (as it relates to your bankroll).

In semi-poker related news, it turns out the motorcycle-riding, gun wielding thief who robbed the Bellagio in Vegas in December was a friend of mine from childhood. We went to the same middle school and high school and graduated in 2000 in Pueblo, CO.

We both had an interest in the "Magic: The Gathering" card game but I didn't really know him outside the MTG circle in school.

I remember when this national story broke in December and I remember thinking how bizarre it was. It's just unreal to me the masked motorcyclist turned out to be someone I had ties to in my quiet childhood.

What a small, crazy world we live in.

GG January

January '09 and January '10 were each my best month of those two years. Naturally I was hoping that result would repeat itself this year. It didn't.

January 2011 started off rough then it quickly switched gears to horrible. Luckily the last two days of the month almost completely negated the damage the first twenty-nine days inflicted.

On Sunday I made two small FTs (one win) and a deep run in a big tourney with a respectable cash. Tonight I got 4th in the 3r on Full Tilt for $865. First place was 2.6K so I'm obviously disappointed. One of the final five players was an average player, two were absolutely horrible, and one was really good. If we played out the final five 100 times it would come down to me and the other good player heads-up 90% of the time.

I lost a flip to the good player while five-handed (my JJ lost to his AQhh) in a three-way all-in pot. The shortstack shoved from utg+1 against a utg limp and the good player reshoved. We had about even stacks and I wasn't too excited about reshipping but I'm not sure I can fold in that spot given the strength of my hand five-handed and the aggressiveness of my opponent.

Anyway I lost the flip and had like 3bb left. I managed to work my way back to 16bb but busted in a B v B cooler. If I would have won the flip I'd have been three-handed against the two horrible players, WITH the chiplead. Dream scenario obv. Oh well.

Here's the screenshot:

While I missed out on a substantial score, I'd be lying if I didn't say the $865 doesn't help. I cleared out all of January's losses minus about $300. Good way to start off February.

So I played 454 MTTs in January. It was't a profitable month but I put myself in +EV situations and things just didn't work out. Now I just have to keep up the grind in February. I'm not likely to run that bad again so I'm hoping this is the month where I can get my roll into the 4K to 6K range at least. At this level I can move up slightly in stakes and take some bigger shots.

I've noticed in my poker playing career that things tend to explode after long periods of bricking. My roll could literally be 10K+ in the next five days while having spent the previous 30 days in the red. It probably won't but that potential is there and that's what the grind is all about for me.

I get excited about building my roll and I've already come up with future schedules for different rolls. I have a schedule ready for a 4K - 6K roll, a 6K - 8K roll, and an 8K+ roll. I also have Sunday schedules made for each of those scenarios.

I think the logistics of building bankrolls is what I most excel at in this game. And I'm not bad on the felt either so it's no wonder I've taken a marginal starting amount (something like 1K to 2K) and turned it into 10K+ several times in the last few years. Hell, I could write a book on it.

My problem is after I build the roll I tend to lose motivation towards the game. It's sad, really.

I learn more and more about my strengths and weaknesses as time goes by. Each year I've played I've improved on my consistency. I think this year will be the year I finally put in consistent volume and hopefully also the year that I force myself to play once I reach my "peak".

I'm thinking of doing something similar to the 25K Project in '09. For those who don't know what that was, I set up a goal to turn $500 on Stars into 25K. I set up different phases for what I would do w/ my roll once I reached a certain amount.

Anyway, I got the $500 all the way up to 15K, hit a bad run, got all depressed, then quit. In retrospect, it was really really stupid of me. I mean, once I got to 15K the hard part was over. I have a long history in my life of getting 90% of the way towards a really tough goal then quitting. I'm still not sure what that's all about.

Ok so this is getting absurdly long. My whole point here is that I'm thinking of resurrecting the 25K Project into something similar but not the same (and finishing it this time). I'll have more on this in the future.

Sorry about the long ramblings. Let's have a great February!

Sunday

I finally had a profitable session today. I won a 150-player $10 tourney on UB for $440. Later on I was 1/7 in another $10 6max tourney on UB and then like 10 hands later I was out in 6th for $124. It was a pretty ridiculous series of events.

Then way later I was in the top 100 of the 7,100 player $55/300K Guarantee on Stars and eyeballing the 44K first place money. Obv my AK < 66 and that was basically the end. The cash was worth $533 but I sold 50% of my action in it to a friend so it was only a $268 cash. I couldn't have even played the tourney (due to bankroll restrictions) w/o selling half my action so it's all good.

I'm gonna be looking to sell percentages of my action pretty aggressively this year on Sundays and during FTOPS/COOPS. I'll likely be selling my action in pieces anywhere from 1% to 50% at a slight markup. I'll be posting more on this later when I get my roll back to good.

So anyway I netted $565 today. Definitely very helpful. If I didn't make any noise today I was gonna have to readjust my schedule for Monday to reflect my downswing and subsequent decreased BR. Thankfully that can be put off for at least a bit (hopefully indefinitely).

Here's the screenshot of that UB win... it ain't much but it feels real good to ship ANY tourney, especially if it's been awhile and you've had a bunch of close calls.

As I posted recently, I feel really good right now. I'm super motivated and it shows as I've played 435 MTTs this month and there's still one day left. Even though I've won a couple small tourneys this month it's been horrible overall. But the good news is my roll is still pretty healthy for the schedule I'm playing so I can run another 400+ MTTs in February. It's only a matter of time til I break through.

Check back soon, good things are gonna happen!

January Coming to a Close

I have enough data for 2011 so I updated the graph at the top of the page to show this year only. I'm going to put up a link to display my 2010 data, I'm not sure where yet though.

I've played 369 MTTs so far in January and even though it's been tough going I feel really good. I've been grinding a steady schedule again and I love the consistency. I actually look forward to playing now whereas in recent times I would completely dread it. Anyway, I should have 400 MTTs in by month's end. This game is all about volume.

How I Make My Schedules

January is half way over and thus far it's been pretty uneventful. I've played 194 MTTs and I'm down a marginal amount. Nothing special. I thought I'd do an update and let my readers know what my current schedule is and what my plans are.

I was playing exclusively on FT up until last week then I spread out to UB. I took a look at Star's lowstakes schedule and tomorrow I'm gonna get some funds over there. Tonight I came up with a two-hour loading block on all three sites that I'm satisfied with. Click to enlarge.

The bold number in parentheses at the end of each tourney indicates its actual buyin amount (i.e. I estimate a 3r will cost $12 on average). Adding up these bold numbers is what gives me the total cost of the schedule.

The three $8.80 tourneys at the very bottom are on Full Tilt. Full Tilt runs these odd $8.80s (180-player max) every 50 minutes. Their start times vary from day to day but within a two-hour loading block I usually end up squeezing three in. I love the $8.80s as the players are horrible, the fields are small, and they aren't turbos which make them an excellent choice for variance control.

So how did I come up with this schedule? Well my roll is about 3k right now. So when I decide what my schedule will be I usually take my roll and divide it by 200. This gives me a good idea of what my average buyin should be. My ABI is somewhere in the $15 range. So now what I do is come up with a schedule where my ABI ends up coming out to around $15.

As you can see from my schedule my ABI is $12.21. That may seem a little low but I like to play it safe. The extra cushion allows me to really play my A+ game and be confident about every tourney I enter and every decision I make. For me, confidence is a big deal when I'm playing so it's worth it for me to have that extra cushion.

The other important factor in the bankroll/schedule equation is to make sure you mix in some tourneys where the fields aren't huge. This variance control factor is really important. It helps keep you sharp when your FTs from large fields are few and far between and helps keep your bankroll from fluctuating too wildly. I've talked a lot about this concept in previous blog entries. I feel (now more than ever) this is very important for the non-staked player who can't replace his/her roll.

As the sessions go by I'm always reevaluating my bankroll and schedule. If I'm on a downswing I adjust my schedule accordingly so that I'm back in my comfort zone. If I'm hitting a tourney(s) then I look to adjust my schedule in the upward direction. This is the exciting part for me as I love to come up with "imaginary" schedules that I know I will be playing soon.

For example, tonight I made up this schedule for when my roll reaches the 5K range:

Making  up these futuristic schedules is a huge motivating factor for me. For some people this may not be important but for me it always has been. It really gives me something very specific to work towards and when it comes to goals it turns out people who work towards very specific goals are much more likely to get there.

For example, if you wanna lose some weight you can't just say "OK I'm gonna lose some weight". You've gotta set very specific numbers and say something like "OK I'm gonna lose 15 lbs". The person who works towards the actual number is far more likely to achieve his/her goals. The ability to measure how far you've come and far you have to go is very important. Abstract goals just don't make any sense.

So anyway that's whats up right now. It's not much but as soon as I catch a heater or two at this level and the next then I should be back to my former midstakes glory ha. Also hopefully some players struggling with their schedules and bankrolls are able to take something away from this post.