August Results/September

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Been a bit since my last post. I've really been putting in heavy volume and the results weren't such that I felt much like posting.

As stated in my last post, I continue to decipher the evolution of the online game since Black Friday. It's been an incredible couple of months, a period of time where I could have pretty easily thrown in the towel on more than one occasion.

I have been struggling slightly with updating my techniques to adapt to this new "crazy" MTT environment. There are a lot more players out there who understand the game incredibly well and a lot of players who think they do but in reality they are just spewy.

Regardless of which player type, the result is higher variance and a realization that very few of the strategies that brought me much success and consistency pre-Black Friday are consistently successful now. Couple that with the fact I'm limited to playing on a site with anonymous screen names, thus complicating the decision making process hand by hand. I can't even put a simple note on a player for when I run into them again in another tourney. Substantial handicap to say the least.

Well, I spent the overwhelming majority of August digging a ridiculous hole it seemed I would never get out of. On top of the above adjustments, I have been running ridiculously below expectation. Without complaining too much about bad beats/variance, I'll just say I have literally never run worse in my poker career in +EV situations.

I was approx. -4.5K for August going into Sunday the 30th. I was 700 MTTs deep into the month and running horribly, even beginning to question Bovada's legitimacy (I've only been on the site for 2 months). My confidence was low. I chose to play anyway and, thankfully, pulled out a 4th in the $22 10K guarantee and 2nd in the Sunday $44 25k Guarantee for 4.8K. In one fell swoop I was able to finish the month in the black somehow. Incredibly relieving. The graph up top clearly illustrates my frustrations. The month-to-month data is updated as well, just click the graph.

September has thus far started out more promising, though I know I am still running below expectation. At some point variance will correct itself and I'll go on a nice run. In Real Estate, it's "Location, Location, Location". In MTTs, it's "Volume, Volume, Volume".

Last night I finished 3rd (again) in the $33 Turbo 5K guarantee (gonna have to win that one one of these days...) and also won the $44 6max 3K guarantee for 1.3K (got 2nd in this tourney 11 days ago on August 22nd). Below are some screenshots of some recent tourneys, including the 2nd place score in the 25K.

So here's hoping September yields results closer to expectation as I continue to reintegrate myself back into the online MTT scene, handicapped as it may be for my situation. Still looking to accumulate a lot more data to determine long-term expectations in this limiting environment.

Good luck out there guys and remember.. Perseverance is Paramount.

August Update

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So I've been putting in an obscene amount of volume. I've played 407 MTTs so far in August.

Volume = Good.

Downswing = Bad.

Unfortunately I've been losing a ridiculous frequency of key situations late in tourneys resulting in finishing at the final two tables or making the FT and busting 9th, 7th, 4th, or making a 3rd if I'm lucky.

My spots are being picked well, the money is consistently going in ahead (65+%) but my opponent finds whatever they need to find and the chips move away from me when it counts. The updated graph at the top is a great visual of how August has been going so far.

I have made several FTs and won several of the smaller tourneys on my schedule (not substantial payouts) but overall its clearly been rough.

Some things I'm thinking:

1) Players are obviously better, have a better understanding of situations. Thus, it is not as easy as it used to be to accumulate chips late-tourney without showdowns. This increases variance.

2) About 40% of my schedule are Turbos. By nature, variance is higher in turbos, and, in a world where a decent % of the field has a pretty solid understanding of correct push/fold strategy, that variance will unfortunately be enhanced further.

3) I absolutely hate Bovada's anonymous player policy. Nearly every situation is cold. Additionally, their Hand History feature is so "cryptic" I don't have time to go back through and see how a person has been playing when faced with a marginal situation.

4) Given all of the above, I feel strongly it's time to reevaluate what a proper bankroll is and what a "typical" downswing looks like. This isn't 2008 anymore and I'm not playing on a site where I can track (using the simple Note feature) the tendencies of players.

I am still 100% certain I'm running well below expectation at final tables - time/volume will bring this back on track. The thing is, I'm not too sure what "back on track" looks like under these circumstances in 2015. Undoubtedly the game is still highly profitable, but ROI can never be as high as it once was. I just don't know what hit that ROI takes as a result of the above factors.

Anyway, so here's another FT from last night where I finished 3rd in the $33 turbo. As per usual, I was CL (slightly, obscene blinds) and called the SB's shove w A5o in the BB against his Q8o. Board: xxxxQ. A hold in that 60/40 spot puts me heads up with a 4:1 chip lead over a player with obvious tendencies.

Just gotta keep grinding until variance corrects itself.

Solid Session, Solid Month

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So I played two out of the last three days. On Tuesday (July 28th) I had a session wrought with potential. I finished 5th in the afternoon $27.50 3K Turbo, bubbled the FTs of the $33 10K and one of the late night $16.50 3K Turbos. The whole day was exactly -$6 bucks for 29 MTTs. All the potential left a bitter taste in my mouth.

I didn't run on Weds the 29th. Then last night (Thurs the 30th) I finally broke through and shipped that afternoon $27.50 3K Turbo for $753.31. I just think the recent time line on this particular tourney is fun... 7th on 7/24, 5th on 7/28, knocked down on 7/30. Like chopping at a tree.

Last night also saw a 3rd place in the $22 1.5K for $207.48 and 4th in the $16.50 3K for $262.50. All pics are below. There wasn't much I could do in the $22 but I'm not quite happy with 4th in the $16.50. I was 4/4 in chips but was in a borderline situation where I'm not sure I had to go broke. I think my play was fine and the villain just barely had me but I think I could have found a better spot...tough to say. It may just be me being hard on myself.

I also had several other cashes last night, including busting the final 3 tables of the $33 10K (AK < QQ obv) and stone bubbling the FT the late night $5r turbo. I was sure last night was going to turn into my second multi-tourney win session on the month but it just wasn't quite in the cards. I also got 4th in the late night $11 Turbo Super KO with like 89 players for $42-something but I didn't bother with a screenshot of that.

All-in-all the session was good with 9 cashes, 4 final tables, and a win. +$994.05 on the day (32 MTTs). This brings my July profit to just shy of 4.9K over 526 MTTs. This is pretty incredible with an ABI of $16.15. All charts and data above are updated.

I know that in a previous post I had mentioned my goal for the year was 25K profit, which is a nice clean, "fun" number. I realize though that a more measurable, appropriate, focused, and professional goal is a concentration on volume.

Because goals should be A) Specific, B) Attainable, but C) Challenging, I believe aiming for a minimum of 600 MTTs/month is the best thing I can do. Because of the nature of variance, volume is the key to long-term profit in the game. I know if I can be hitting that 600+ monthly quota then good things will definitely be happening.

The hardest part about this game is playing through the negative variance. But if you can manage to play through it and not give in to the seemingly endless string of 2 and 3-outers and runner-runners, it always turns around. Oh yea, and never forget the importance of proper bankroll management and ABIs/Scheduling. This really can not be stressed enough. Readers of this blog should know all about that.

No Lobby Shot Available - Lobby had disappeared from client by the time I could go back and grad a shot - I had at least 12 other MTTs up while I was finishing up the heads-up match in this

A Collection of Little Things

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The title of this post will likely be the first in a series like it. On nights like tonight (32 MTTs and a sattelite) where nothing substantial materialized, there are typically some smaller positive things to take away.

Shipped the $5.50 6max for the second time this month (also a 2nd place in it). Only 52 players (not even a hundo for first), but it's super soft and so easy to dominate at the last two tables.

Won the $55 (30K Guarantee) seat in the $7.70 satellite (20-seat Guarantee). The sixth one of these I've won this month (6/18). I play the 30K whether I satty in or not.

When the numbers are run, the $7.70 satellite has saved me $191.40 in total buyins to that tourney this month. If you wanted to dig further (and I always do) you can essentially recalculate the buyin of the $55 30K Guarantee as $44.37..make sense?

These little things, in aggregate, add up to pretty substantial profit in the long run, For example, if I hold the same margin for a full year, playing the quick turbo $7.70 satellite ADDS $2,296.80 to my annual profit margin.

Speaking of other little things, I hit my third $7.70 "Hundredaire" score. Typically the top 10 or 11 spots turn $7.70 into $100.00 (weak field of ~150 players). Again, another example of consistently picking up small things here and there that add up when you calculate your bottom line. Like the above example, if I hold my current margin in the Hundredaire from an annual perspective, I add $1,936.80 to my bottom line.

So by simply running the nightly $7.70 satellite and $7.70 Hundredaire (in addition to the "meat" of my schedule), I can expect to see ~4K profit added annually.

Ugh, and then I bubbled the FT of the $27.50 KO 6max tonight. Two nights ago I got 3-outed at the FT of this tourney and busted in 6th. On July 16th I won this tourney. Seems to be the MTT I consistently do the best in right now (could just be variance, coupled with the fact the field is typically 135-155 players.. small but not too small). 1st always pays over $600.00, topping out at $700+ on good nights. Great tourney with a great structure, and because the buyin is a little higher than the $11s and $15s, players don't go too crazy in forcing showdowns that should generally be avoided if possible..this increases the skill level of the game and reduces variance (something I may talk more on later).

6max has always been a strength of mine. I'm very comfortable with 6max ranges and it's easier to figure out your competition's weaknesses for two very simple reasons:

1) When there are less opponents at the table, there are less individual player dynamics to process and work around
2) Those opponents have to play more hands by virtue of more button orbits thus revealing more of their thought process, which you will bank and exploit at the right time.

Okay so, circling back to the beginning, I'll probably try to make posts like these when it's a "here and there" kind of night like tonight (if I have the energy..please don't expect quite daily postings). I think it's good for me to reflect on the positives (no matter how small) and I know readers like to see any kind of success.

These small-prize portions of my schedule also help to offset the often nasty toll MTT variance can have on your bankroll, in addition to keeping you sharp in late-game situations. Tonight being a great example of this..

My schedule had me in for 32 MTTs and one sattelite (sum of buyins = $500.01). Though no "substantial" FTs/scores were made (where true profit creation occurs), I was still able to offset the total buyins by $382.01 (76% of daily expenses recovered). Again, the bulk of that 76% recovery was the satellite, the Hundredaire, and the win in the weak 52-runner $5 6max no guarantee.

So if you're looking to keep variance in check and stay sharp for late game situations, I've always been an advocate of mixing in a pretty healthy dose of what I like to call "variance control tourneys". I can talk more on this later, or feel free to shoot me any questions you might have on this and I'll be happy to share more details of this process if it interests you.

Good luck out there.

Score!

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So I finally hit a score worthy of all the time and effort I've been putting in lately, brutal ending though..story of the month it seems.

Finished 4/955 in the bloated Sunday Turbo version of the $55 Nightly 30K for $3.4K. I was in prime shape to ship this thing (8.6K to first).

I was CL 5-handed, pretty much running over the table. The button shoved 15BBs w/A5o, I snapped in the BB w/AQo, the board fell a ridiculous xxx5x. That pot would have brought us to 4 players with me having just over 50% of chips in play against 3 predictable/weak players - an ideal situation.

I had the chip lead at the time I lost the above 70/30, so that knocked me down to 3/5. We lost a player, blinds crept up (turbo style), and I shipped my 11 BBs w/AJo utg. The eventual winner (go figure) iso'd w/A10cc. He flopped 2 clubs and completed on the turn. No problem. GG me. Ugh. A hold in that spot puts me back 1/4. So sick right now the frequency of 3-outers and 70/30s hitting on me late game.

Last night I finished 6th in the $27.50 KO 6max tourney that I won a couple weeks ago. I 3bet shoved AJo, got the call from A8o, and watched the 8xx8x board fall. Pretty frustrating.

Keeping perspective though.. I'm up 4.5K in just over a month since returning to MTTs. Pretty good for an ABI of just $15.67.  I feel like I am definitely running below expectation and with more volume will come a correction in variance.

As per usual my consistency in MTTs remains strong, even in the face of an evolved, overly aggressive MTT world where UTG is literally the new button and light 3-bets are the rule - not the exception.

Stay tuned, more to come of course.

Grinding Away..

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Been playing some heavy volume, the kind of volume I need to be putting in. Between 25 and 30 MTTs/night. This volume will generate pretty good profit, even at a ~$16 ABI.

Deep runs, FTs, but can't catch any significant scores. My late-game run-bad is turned up high.

Lot's of crazy stuff I could complain about but I'm too tired. Below are 2 FTs from  tonight, finishing 7th and 4th.

The 4th place finish was super bitter, Min-open the button w/AA, SB has been very aggro. Sure enough he jams his ~25 BBs w/K10hh into my 24 BBs. I snap and watch the board fall 78JJ9. Pretty ridic obv. That was for the CL 3-handed against one marginal and one terrible player. That's how it goes though. Just gotta keep grindin', stay positive. Good things to come.

Graph/data at top updated.

First 4-figure Score Since Returning to Online/2015 Goal Set

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As promised in the below post just 3 days ago, big things are coming. Not sure I'd call tonight "big", but I took a good step in the right direction by hitting my first 4-figure score on Bovada since "officially" starting back up online 3 weeks ago (after a 4+ year hiatus). It came in the form of 4/435 in the nightly $33 - 10K Guarantee.

1st place was worth >$2.7K but I couldn't get anything going 4-handed and ultimately got my 10 BBs in w/99 only to lose a flip to AKdd (board: xxxDxDxD).

It does come as a relief though, having been putting in substantial volume and hitting scores under 1K. I actually finished 7th in this same tourney just 5 nights ago, in an identical situation, just switched. Bricked out with AKhh to JJ on and xHxHx flop.

Below are the Lobby and Table Message screenshots for tonight's score.

Tonight actually had the potential to be quite big. I finished 39/731 in the $55 Nightly 30K (~$7K for 1st) and finished 23/1216 in the $11 10K.

Coolered in both unfortunately.. ran JJ into KK in the 30K and got in a nasty spot w/77 in the 10K on a x7x all-Club flop, Villian holding A10cc of course. Couldn't fill up, was a huge pot, If he flops a flush there and fades the boat then good for him. Otherwise, I'm huge and poised for a deep run.

Both those lobbys are at the bottom of this posting.

So I'm going to be actively blogging with high frequency again and using Twitter going forward. So be sure to keep up with the latest and follow me @Adamsapple19 (easy link on the right). I'll be posting my schedule pretty soon and freshening up the blog a bit here in the days to come.

As mentioned in the title of this post, I've decided to set my goal for the year at minimum of 25K profit. In later posts I'll get more in depth on my thought process but for now just know that I have the remaining part of July and then five full months to reach the goal. Gonna be exciting so stay tuned!